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Since its Q3 FY22 consequence, Bajaj Auto Ltd. has outperformed Nifty 50 by ~15% amid worsening outlook on profitability, rising gasoline costs and flattish demand outlook in key export markets.
Although we hold our FY23E income estimates largely unchanged, we trim FY23E Ebitda margin by ~300 foundation factors to ~14.5% resulting from surge in uncooked materials prices, leading to 2% lower in FY24E earnings.
Although latest price inflation would get partially mirrored in This fall FY22, bulk of it could come Q1 FY23E onward.
We proceed to build-in 12% home motorbike quantity compound annual development price in FY22E-FY24E with market share at 18.5%.
With key two-wheeler abroad markets both displaying static demand or a declining bias, we count on Bajaj Auto’s two-wheeler export volumes to develop at 8% CAGR in FY22-FY24E.
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