Q1 E&P results – key earnings drivers and guidance commentary

US exploration and manufacturing shares have seen robust efficiency yr up to now, led by ~100% rallies in Occidental (OXY) and Kosmos (KOS). The commodity setting has improved considerably, with oil (CL1:COM) up ~35% and henry hub fuel (NG1:COM) up ~80% in 2022. The enterprise mannequin has additionally improved. After a close to decade of overspending money flows to develop manufacturing, E&P administration groups have nearly uniformly pivoted to a extra shareholder-friendly capital allocation mannequin. As Q1 outcomes close to, buyers are positive to deal with a number of key drivers of earnings and outlooks:

• Provide chain – mining operations have been hit by provide chain challenges, and the market has responded harshly to lowered quantity steering (FCX) (AA); although E&Ps have largely guided the Road to modest manufacturing development, outliers like Matador (MTDR) and Hess (HES) might see provide chain challenges limit US onshore manufacturing plans.
• Prices – Haliburton (HAL), Baker (BKR) and Schlumberger (SLB) have all reported, citing tight service capability and elevated pricing energy; it is possible too quickly for E&P administration groups to vary capital spending steering, although feedback on service price inflation are positive to seize the market’s consideration.
• DUCs – Although weekly DOE knowledge has proven flat US onshore manufacturing yr up to now, month-to-month drilling productiveness experiences have revealed quickly falling nicely stock; Exxon (XOM) has been flagged as drawing down DUCs, although the trade broadly might want to tackle the problem of rebuilding nicely stock in some unspecified time in the future in 2022.
• Coverage – since struggle started in Ukraine, E&P administration groups and Washington have largely pointed fingers somewhat than working collectively to extend US oil manufacturing; nonetheless, Pioneer’s (PXD) CEO has known as for a coordinated effort from Washington, whereas the White Home has launched extra federal lands for drilling — policy-related feedback are prone to seize headlines all through earnings season, and supply readability on the trail ahead for US manufacturing.

US oil patch economics are stronger than they have been in at the least a decade. Rising commodity costs and an more and more shareholder pleasant enterprise mannequin has been rewarded by the market yr up to now. Nonetheless, there are a number of tertiary challenges for administration groups to navigate all through the Q1 earnings season.