JP Morgan forecasts “higher for longer” refining margins

JP Morgan’s built-in oil and refining analyst Phil Gresh up to date his refining forecasts Tuesday, citing a protracted checklist of bullish traits, whereas flagging recession danger. Phil sees present margins normalizing to nearer historic averages in 2023, however says a nasty hurricane season may result in “operating out of refined merchandise for a time frame.” Following Goldman’s bullish refining be aware Monday, it seems Wall Road is starting to place for a shift within the sector. With Goldman and JPMorgan echoing factors made by Saudi’s vitality minister late final 12 months.

Gresh hits on all the important thing themes. Demand has recovered to pre-covid ranges, whereas ~3mb/d of refining capability has been faraway from world markets. China’s pivot on product exports has tightened Asian markets, whereas Russian export impacts have created deficits in Europe. Within the very close to time period, an exit from spring refinery upkeep is predicted so as to add 2.0-2.5mb/d of provide, although demand from the summer time driving season is prone to outstrip the incremental provides.

Together with Tuesday’s be aware, JP Morgan upgraded PBF (PBF) from promote to carry, following the corporate’s virtually 140% year-to-date rally. Curiously, Phil’s inventory picks do not replicate a very bullish view. He stays buy-rated on Valero (VLO), Philips (PSX) and Marathon (MPC), the three largest, lowest price and finest capitalized refiners within the US. In the meantime, he’s promote or impartial rated on decrease high quality operators that ought to profit extra from bettering margins. Additional proof that whereas analysts and institutional traders acknowledge the drivers of bettering fundamentals, they’re positioned defensively and successfully fading the rally in commodities.