Oil to $60? Friday’s plunge may be the start, says one noted bear

The plunge in crude on Friday might be the beginning of a collapse in commodities, strategist Albert Edwards says.

WTI crude oil (CL1:COM) (NYSEARCA:USO) fell 6%, whereas Brent (CO1:COM) (BNO) misplaced almost 4% on Friday. Power shares (XLE) had their worst week since March 2020.

SocGen’s Edwards, a famous bear, tweeted that there are echoes of what occurred in 2008.

Noting an article when he made an identical forecast, Edwards tweeted: “This text from Oct 08 notes when the oil value was $150 I mentioned the approaching recession would take it to $60.”

“Right now’s value motion would be the begin of an identical commodity collapse because the Fed crash land the economic system. I predict unfavorable headline CPI inflation.”

Power (XLE) is the weak final man standing, MKM chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky mentioned midweek.

“XLE continues to be ~28% above its 200 DMA, and +52% YTD. If the 12 months had been to finish now, it will be the very best 12 months on report for Power again to 1991,” Krinsky mentioned. “The second greatest 12 months was final 12 months (+48%).”

“We additionally assume that is what is required to see lengthy/quick momentum unwind, and finally put in a extra sturdy backside. So even when beaten-down development names go down additional, it is probably that Power comes down at a quicker fee.”

See why it is time for power traders to speak about demand destruction.