Are You Willing To Suffer Through A Recession For The Good Of “The Liberal World Order”? – Investment Watch

by Michael

How a lot are you prepared to sacrifice for “the way forward for the liberal world order”?  As you will note beneath, the Biden administration is making an attempt to persuade us that supporting the “liberal world order” is much extra essential than any short-term financial ache that we’re experiencing proper now.  So are you prepared to pay ridiculously excessive fuel costs for the foreseeable future and undergo via a really critical financial downturn in an effort to put stress on Vladimir Putin and Russia?  Some Individuals can be prepared to do this, however most wouldn’t.

On Friday, we discovered that the U.S. economic system is heading within the flawed path quite a bit faster than a lot of the “consultants” had anticipated.  The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow mannequin is at the moment projecting that financial development for the second quarter of 2022 shall be unfavorable 2.1 %…

The GDPNow mannequin estimate for actual GDP development (seasonally adjusted annual price) within the second quarter of 2022 is -2.1 % on July 1, down from -1.0 % on June 30. After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Enterprise from the Institute for Provide Administration and the development report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter actual private consumption expenditures development and actual gross personal home funding development decreased from 1.7 % and -13.2 %, respectively, to 0.8 % and -15.2 %, respectively.

U.S. GDP development was unfavorable through the first quarter, and if U.S. GDP development is unfavorable once more within the second quarter that can imply that we’re already in a recession proper now.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow mannequin ought to be taken very critically, as a result of it has a very sturdy monitor report of accuracy…

“GDPNow has a robust monitor report, and the nearer we get to July twenty eighth’s launch [of the initial Q2 GDP estimate] the extra correct it turns into,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Analysis.

Whether it is confirmed later this month that we’re already in a recession, it gained’t precisely be a shock, however the excellent news is that thus far this new financial downturn just isn’t that extreme.

Sadly, we proceed to see extra indicators that issues will quickly get a lot worse.

The tempo of layoffs is actually beginning to speed up and that is very true within the tech trade.

At this level, even Fb is trying to skinny the ranks…

Along with the hiring freeze, Zuckerberg additionally famous the corporate was leaving some vacant positions on the firm unfilled and “turning up the warmth” on efficiency administration to weed out staffers who’re unable to satisfy sure KPIs.

“Realistically, there are in all probability a bunch of individuals on the firm who shouldn’t be right here,” Zuckerberg mentioned, including, “A part of my hope by elevating expectations and having extra aggressive objectives, and simply sort of turning up the warmth a little bit bit, is that I feel a few of you would possibly determine that this place isn’t for you, and that self-selection is OK with me.”

In the meantime, we’re seeing Individuals in the reduction of on their spending at a daunting tempo.

The truth is, one current survey found {that a} whopping 83 % of all Individuals have “slashed private spending because of hovering costs”…

Provident Financial institution, based mostly in New Jersey, discovered that 83% of respondents slashed private spending because of hovering costs of meals and gasoline, with 23% indicating they needed to make “drastic adjustments” to their spending for monetary survival. 

In line with the survey outcomes of 600 adults, 10.5% of respondents eradicated all non-essential purchases, and almost 72% mentioned they made no less than some adjustments to non-public journey habits.

And Wall Avenue appears to have lastly gotten the message that very laborious occasions are forward.

The primary half of 2022 was the worst first half of a yr for the S&P 500 since 1970, and the index has now plunged into bear market territory…

This all got here a day after the S&P 500 posted a greater than 16% quarterly loss – its greatest one-quarter fall since March 2020. For the primary half, the broader market index dropped 20.6% for its largest first-half decline since 1970. It additionally tumbled into bear market territory, down greater than 21% from a report excessive set early January.

The Biden administration is overtly admitting that extra financial struggling is on the way in which, however we’re being instructed that it’s essential.

On Wednesday, CNN interviewed a key financial adviser to Joe Biden named Brian Deese, and what Deese mentioned throughout that interview is making headlines everywhere in the globe…

CNN anchor Victor Blackwell interviewed Deese on Thursday and cited that Director of Nationwide Intelligence Avril Haines mentioned on Wednesday the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may very well be a “grinding wrestle” for years.

Blackwell mentioned, “I feel everyone understands why that is occurring, however is it sustainable? What do you say to these households who say, hear, we will’t afford to pay $4.85 a gallon for months, if not years? This isn’t sustainable.”

Deese – who was previously the worldwide head of sustainable investing at BlackRock – replied, “What we heard from the president right now was in regards to the stakes. That is about the way forward for the liberal world order, and we’ve to face agency.”

No thanks.

I don’t need something to do with a “liberal world order”, and I’m certain that almost all of you don’t both.

Within the previous days they known as it a “new world order”, however that phrase now has so many unfavorable connotations to it that they determined to give you one thing new.

Will somebody please inform them that “liberal world order” is even worse?

These guys actually stink at branding.

Why will we even must have a “world order” within the first place?

Why can’t we simply attempt to get together with everybody as a substitute of making an attempt to drive our twisted values on all the planet?

I actually want that the U.S. and Russia would have simply left Ukraine alone and would have allowed them to find out their very own destiny.

For sure, that was by no means going to occur, and now the U.S. and Russia are engaged in a horrifying proxy conflict and numerous Ukrainians are being sacrificed like pawns on a chessboard.

If either side proceed to escalate this battle, it may finally deliver us to the brink of nuclear conflict.

However no less than we shall be supporting “the way forward for the liberal world order”, and isn’t that what is absolutely essential?

Many people have been relentlessly warning about the place all of this foolishness will finally lead us, however a lot of the inhabitants doesn’t need to hear.

Sadly, many will simply proceed to help “the present factor” it doesn’t matter what the results are.

The primary half of 2022 has been filled with surprises, however I’m anticipating international occasions to speed up much more through the second half of this yr.

So maintain on to your hats, as a result of I consider that issues are about to begin getting actually, actually loopy on the market.