The Official Story About the Economy Doesn’t Add Up – Investment Watch

by: Stefan Gleason

It’s official: the financial system isn’t going into recession.

That pronouncement comes straight from the identical prime Biden administration official who final 12 months declared that inflation can be transitory.

On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen went on NBC’s “Meet the Press” and mentioned, “This isn’t an financial system that’s in recession.”

Interpretations of what constitutes a recession differ amongst economists. Some level to unfavourable Gross Home Product readings already within the books as affirmation a recession has began. Others merely see a slowdown.

Nevertheless it doesn’t take an economist to see warning indicators of recession abounding. Households see their prices of residing rising a lot quicker than their incomes. Companies, in flip, see weakening gross sales numbers and tighter margins, pushing many to take drastic cost-cutting measures.

The Alignable small enterprise community’s July hiring report confirmed that 45% of small companies are halting new hiring.

In response to the report, “This represents a major hiring shift, and is essentially a response to mounting labor prices, skyrocketing inflation, fears of a recession, and rising rates of interest.”

Giant publicly traded firms are giving of recession warnings. The S&P 500 has fallen over 20% from its excessive – a traditional bear market indicator and recession precursor.

Traders are anxious the Federal Reserve’s price hikes will kill the financial system.

And traditionally, at any time when the Fed has launched into a rate-hiking marketing campaign of this magnitude, it has precipitated the financial system to roll over.

However to prime federal officers, none of those indicators of a recession are even seen?!

“You don’t see any of the indicators,” Janet Yellen insisted throughout her Sunday media rounds. “A recession is a broad-based contraction that impacts many sectors of the financial system. We simply don’t have that.”

Traders who don’t purchase the official story on the financial system ought to put together accordingly. Whether or not it’s only a delicate recession or a complete financial collapse, a deteriorating financial system will ultimately drive the Fed to alter course on price hikes.

Expectations for additional tightening have helped push the U.S. Greenback Index larger and treasured metals costs decrease in current weeks. Nonetheless, these developments confirmed indicators of reversing final week.

The Fed will certainly hike charges once more at is upcoming coverage assembly on Wednesday. Markets have already priced that in.

What they haven’t priced in is the Fed pivoting away from inflation combating and towards digging the financial system out of a downturn.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell gained’t make an announcement to that impact. However markets will interpret any refined shifts in language towards dovishness to imply central bankers are, in actual fact, anxious a couple of recession regardless of official denials.

As soon as hypothesis of a Fed pivot will get any affirmation, it may very well be curtains for U.S. greenback power – and all clear for gold and silver markets to take off.