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Do you know that as early because the Thirties scientists had been utilizing wastewater – particularly, human excreta – to trace illness outbreaks like polio nicely earlier than the Rona got here to city? Right here’s one other fascinating scientific scoop on poop: The most effective therapies for folks affected by a severe bacterial intestine an infection is a fecal transplant, mainly transferring good micro organism from a wholesome microbiome to recolonize one other’s diseased colon. We’re going to squeeze another out that’s notably related to right now’s article: One solution to display screen for colon most cancers is thru a fecal immunochemical test (FIT), which makes use of antibodies to detect blood within the stool.
We’re MBAs not coprophiliacs, however that is our approach of introducing Precise Sciences (EXAS), which has grown to a $9 billion firm by providing a diagnostic take a look at for colorectal most cancers referred to as Cologuard that mixes FIT with a genomic method that detects altered most cancers DNA in stool. The existence of Cologuard is an enormous cause why Guardant Well being (GH) inventory took a dump final week following a examine that confirmed its liquid biopsy take a look at for colorectal most cancers isn’t practically as delicate because the ssoftware DNA (sDNA) take a look at from Precise Sciences. Whereas we stay dedicated to Guardant Well being, believing its general platform is stable, we need to take a more in-depth have a look at Precise Sciences and its current strikes to turn into a frontrunner in most cancers diagnostics testing.
About Precise Sciences Inventory
We final took a deep dive into Precise Sciences inventory again in 2018 after it had been having fun with just a few years of serious income and market cap development, capped by the announcement of a advertising and marketing marketing campaign in collaboration with Pfizer. A lot has modified since then. Income continues to be on a decent upward pattern, climbing to $1.8 billion in 2021, representing about 19% development year-over-year. Sooner or later in 2020, the inventory was up greater than +5,000% from when it went public about 20 years in the past, a lot of the positive aspects coming since 2016. Nonetheless, the decline began in early 2021, months earlier than the remainder of the tech sector headed south. What occurred?
There have been most likely just a few components in play, beginning with that Pfizer deal to advertise Cologuard, which ended final 12 months. In response, Precise Sciences employed 400 out-of-work former Pfizer gross sales flunkies who had been flogging the sDNA take a look at. The corporate additionally onboarded superstar Katie Couric, who made colonoscopies cool just a few years in the past, to be its model spokesperson. Like many diagnostics firms with in depth expertise in genetic testing, Precise Sciences jumped into the covid-detection market. It loved a large bump in income for some time however gross sales have been steadily declining because the pandemic recedes as an on a regular basis concern. As is typical with an organization in a high-growth part of growth, Precise Sciences is shopping for increased income with larger losses, together with $595 million in 2021 alone.
Acquisitions by Precise Sciences
A number of the pullback on Precise Sciences inventory could also be associated to its current spending spree on acquisitions which put $4.4 billion in goodwill on the steadiness sheet together with $2.2 billion in debt. Precise Sciences has acquired a dozen firms within the final 5 years, with two-thirds coming into the fold since 2020. The 2 largest acquisitions value a mixed $5 billion. Let’s take a fast have a look at these two particularly, together with a few others.
It purchased Genomic Well being in July 2019 for $2.8 billion for that firm’s portfolio of precision oncology assessments referred to collectively as Oncotype DX. Till then, Precise Sciences was nonetheless a one-trick pony with Cologuard as its solely most cancers diagnostics take a look at. The addition of Genomic Well being additionally introduced worldwide publicity, with Octotype assessments performed in additional than 90 international locations, whereas Cologuard is barely accessible in america. Nonetheless, primarily based on Q3-2022 revenues, the worldwide market is just not that vital.
The Genomic Well being acquisition additionally got here with some undesirable consideration from the U.S. Division of Justice, which is investigating compliance points round Medicare billing that occurred earlier than Precise Sciences acquired Genomic Well being. At the moment, Precise Sciences estimates it should owe the federal government practically $54 million in fines and costs. Final 12 months, it additionally wrote down about $200 million in goodwill impairment associated to the termination of an R&D settlement that one other biotech had with Genomic Well being. The undertaking would have developed an in vitro diagnostic model of Genomic Well being’s Oncotype DX Breast Recurrence Rating take a look at, which examines the exercise of 21 genes in a affected person’s breast tumor tissue to foretell chemotherapy profit.
In January 2021, Precise Sciences acquired Thrive Earlier Detection for practically $2.2 billion. The pre-revenue firm is growing a liquid biopsy take a look at that may detect 10 various kinds of most cancers in blood fairly than from a tissue biopsy. That’s an enormous chunk of change for a corporation presently with no industrial product. Different current acquisitions additionally geared towards increase the corporate’s credentials in most cancers diagnostics embody Ashion Analytics and PreventionGenetics, a few industrial genetics-testing laboratories. The previous presents experience in growing assessments for detecting small quantities of most cancers cells that might trigger a relapse (referred to as minimal residual illness), whereas the latter is concentrated on assessing most cancers danger by way of genetics.
The Most cancers Diagnostics Marketplace for Precise Sciences
Precise Sciences is clearly making an attempt to construct out a most cancers diagnostics empire nicely past Cologuard, with a complete addressable market of practically $60 billion, in line with the corporate.
The primary market, colorectal most cancers, is the place the corporate presently dominates with its sDNA take a look at, although Precise Sciences can be growing its personal liquid biopsy take a look at to enrich Cologuard. It’s also engaged on a Cologuard 2.0 model, with a current examine exhibiting elevated sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 92%, up from 92% and 87%, respectively. The previous quantity refers back to the take a look at’s capacity to accurately determine the presence of most cancers, whereas the latter refers back to the variety of false positives – inflicting somebody to freak out that they’ve most cancers once they don’t. Most significantly, Cologuard 2.0 confirmed a 15-point enhance in sensitivity in detecting precancerous lesions, from 42% to 57%, which has been its largest limitation versus the gold-standard colonoscopy. In the meantime, blood-testing firms like Guardant Well being and Freenome nonetheless have work to do earlier than they’ll moderately problem Precise Sciences.
The opposite two markets stay largely untapped by Precise Sciences at this level (and it’s not solely clear how the corporate got here up with these numbers). The Thrive acquisition is predicted to place Precise Sciences within the thick of the liquid biopsy marketplace for detecting a number of cancers. Thus far, the analysis has been promising however there’s extra work to be performed earlier than the FDA offers its blessing.
The Ashion acquisition, together with different know-how not too long ago acquired from the lab’s former proprietor, the Translational Genomics Analysis Institute (TGen), ought to assist Precise Sciences compete within the third market to watch and forestall most cancers recurrence. For instance, the tech from TGen, dubbed TARDIS, is a time machine for stopping most cancers extremely delicate, patient-specific liquid biopsy-based take a look at that may detect small quantities of tumor DNA in blood for minimal residual disease (MRD) testing. As well as, the founders of Precise Sciences not too long ago began a brand new liquid biopsy firm, Haystack Oncology, to develop an MRD take a look at. The startup raised $56 million final month, together with funding from Precise Sciences. Haystack is reportedly making an attempt to commercialize a product by as early as subsequent 12 months.
Ought to You Purchase Precise Sciences Inventory?
Precise Sciences is a type of firms that discovered nice monetary success from its flagship product and is now aggressively utilizing the cash to construct a complete most cancers diagnostics firm, notably by way of inorganic development. Quite a lot of high-growth tech firms adopted this mannequin over the previous couple of years when enterprise capital {dollars} flowed freely, typically paying a premium value that they later needed to take an accounting loss on. We’ve already seen some indicators of comparable rising pangs with Precise Sciences, particularly with the Genomic Well being acquisition. The $2.2 billion paid for Thrive, a pre-revenue firm that had raised $367 million, might show to be one other monetary stumble.
On the constructive aspect, there are indicators that Precise Sciences is making an attempt to rein in losses. The corporate has laid off practically 600 staff this 12 months and offered off its Oncotype DX GPS prostate most cancers enterprise to an organization referred to as mdxhealth for $30 million, with as much as one other $70 million potential primarily based on attaining sure milestones. Quarterly losses are steadily declining:
One other encouraging sign got here through the firm’s Q3-2022 presentation, when administration barely raised its full-year steerage:
It’s price noting that screening income contains between $40 million and $42 million from PreventionGenetics, giving us some perception into the scale of that enterprise, which Precise Sciences acquired for an undisclosed sum in January 2022. It’s good to see the corporate rising revenues, regardless of the regular decline in revenue from covid testing. The diversification in income can be a plus, regardless that it has come at a big value. Precise Sciences is sitting on about $670 million in money and property, so it’s good to go for at the very least one other 12 months, but it surely’s probably the corporate might want to institute extra cost-cutting measures or different actions to shore up its checking account till it turns into worthwhile. Let’s hope that doesn’t contain diluting shareholders.
Conclusion
We have now preferred Precise Sciences inventory for some time, and that opinion hasn’t modified. The corporate is positioning itself to be a market chief within the liquid biopsy marketplace for most cancers diagnostics after establishing its dominance in colorectal most cancers testing with Cologuard. All indicators are pointing towards most cancers blood testing utilizing genetic biomarkers as the brand new normal within the close to future, with plenty of medical trials returning constructive outcomes. Precise Sciences has confirmed it could possibly turn into a distinct segment market chief. We’ll wait and see if that interprets right into a dominant place within the broader most cancers diagnostics market.
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