Lithium Maker Albemarle Cut Its Earnings Guidance. Why the Stock Is Up.

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Disappointing steering from the lithium miner

Albemarle

reveals simply how powerful it may be to put money into commodity producers. Buyers want to trace spot costs, authorities coverage, demand, and provide, to not point out the strategic selections of firm administration.

Wednesday night,

Albemarle

(ticker: ALB) reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $10.32 from gross sales of $2.6 billion. Wall Road was searching for $7 and $2.7 billion, respectively. A 12 months in the past, the corporate reported EPS of $2.38 and $1.1 billion in gross sales.

Gross sales rose about 129% 12 months over 12 months. Earnings jumped about 334%. Rising demand for lithium, larger lithium costs, and a change in pricing technique boosted each numbers considerably.

General, it was an unbelievable quarter. The inventory fell in after hours buying and selling Wednesday, however shares have been up 4.3% on Thursday at $180.39.

“We see robust gross sales quantity progress for the remainder of the 12 months however have modified our steering to mirror softening lithium market pricing,” stated CEO Kent Masters in a information launch. “We stay assured within the underlying market energy of our world-class asset base and our long-term progress technique.”

Annual gross sales at the moment are anticipated to fall between $9.8 billion and $11.5 billion, whereas administration had projected $11.3 billion to $12.9 billion in February. Earnings per share at the moment are anticipated to be between $20.75 and $25.75, down from a variety of $26 to $33.

Wall Road is projecting 2023 earnings per share of about $26.

Unstable lithium costs drove the modifications in steering. Benchmark costs for lithium carbonate, a key element within the lithium-ion batteries that energy electrical automobiles from

Tesla

(TSLA) and others, peaked in November at round $90,000 per metric ton. They began 2023 at about $75,000 and at the moment are at about $25,000.

Most enterprise between miners and their prospects is completed with annual contracts. Albemarle, nonetheless, has been transferring extra to a mannequin the place spot pricing is mirrored in these contracts extra shortly than prior to now.

“Dwell by sword, die by the sword,” wrote Evercore ISI analyst Stephen Richardson in a Wednesday report. He nonetheless charges shares Purchase and has a $295 value goal for the inventory.

“Albemarle spent a lot of 2022 renegotiating and restructuring lithium contacts to raised mirror market index pricing… loads of transferring components, and headwinds to conviction, however a lot of the injury seems to be to be achieved right here.”

Coming into Thursday buying and selling, Albemarle inventory was down about 20% thus far this 12 months. The

S&P 500
and

Dow Jones Industrial Common
are up about 7% and 1%, respectively.

The distinction in contracting philosophy may be seen within the earnings of lithium mining peer

Livent

(LTHM). It reported first-quarter numbers Tuesday night. It additionally posted a giant earnings “beat,” however raised its full-year 20203 steering.

Livent

now expects earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation and amortization to fall between $530 million and $600 million. Prior steering, given in February, was a variety of $510 million to $580 million. Wall Road at present tasks 2023 Ebitda of $530 million.

Livent inventory rose 7% in Wednesday buying and selling, following its outcomes. Buyers look like high quality with each pricing methods.

The declines in Albemarle inventory depart it buying and selling for about six occasions earnings over the previous 12 months. That’s an enormous low cost to the market’s ratio of roughly 19 occasions. Buyers are struggling to issue the volatility of the lithium market into the costs of firms that produce the steel.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com