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Annual power payments for a typical family are anticipated to fall barely to £1,926 from October, in line with a brand new forecast.
Consultancy agency Cornwall Perception predicts payments may drop by £148 beneath a brand new official worth cap set to be introduced by Ofgem subsequent week.
The power worth cap limits how a lot suppliers can cost households for every unit of power they use.
However payments nonetheless stay far larger than earlier than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Kate Mulvany, senior guide at Cornwall Perception, advised the BBC’s As we speak programme that whereas wholesale power costs had been falling, the drop in payments from October will in all probability be rather less than customers have been hoping for.
“Sadly… our forecasting to the tip of this decade is that costs are going to remain larger than individuals have been used to earlier than the power worth disaster.”
The power watchdog, Ofgem, units a most worth that suppliers can cost prospects per unit of fuel and electrical energy.
It applies to households on variable or default tariffs in England, Wales and Scotland, however the precise quantity paid by prospects will fluctuate relying on the quantity of fuel and electrical energy they use.
Modifications to the power worth cap come into power each quarter to replicate modifications in wholesale costs, and it stood at £2,074 for a typical family in July.
The value of wholesale power elevated as Covid restrictions have been eased after which rocketed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine final 12 months.
In October final 12 months, the federal government stepped in to restrict a typical family’s annual fuel and electrical energy invoice to £2,500. It additionally gave a £400 winter low cost to each family, which was paid in six instalments between October and March.
This assist has been wound down, though cost-of-living funds will proceed to be made to individuals on decrease incomes and people receiving sure advantages.
‘Stubbornly excessive costs’
The Finish Gasoline Poverty Coalition warned that few prospects would really feel higher off, regardless of the lower within the worth cap.
“Any declines in wholesale prices are virtually cancelled out by the tip of the federal government’s Vitality Payments Assist Scheme, which suggests payments keep at related ranges to final 12 months whereas individuals have much less capacity to pay these stubbornly excessive costs,” it stated.
“This coming winter is not going to really feel any higher than final as power payments stay at dangerously excessive ranges.”
Cornwall Perception warned that it was nonetheless essential that the federal government explores different choices for power payments, similar to social tariffs, to ensure they’re reasonably priced.
In an announcement, Cornwall Perception stated that the sluggish discount of payments together with the “volatility” related to the power worth cap may imply extra prospects look to going again to a set tariff for his or her fuel and electrical energy.
“With so many unknowns within the power market, every family should determine for themselves what’s the finest avenue for them,” its principal guide Dr Craig Lowrey stated.
It additionally instructed that the UK was notably prone to modifications in wholesale costs due to its reliance on fuel imports.
In keeping with Ms Mulvany, one of many large drivers behind the excessive costs being forecast over the subsequent decade is that nuclear energy stations within the UK are anticipated to retire, so they are going to cease producing a “very substantial quantity of power that the UK depends on”.
A spokesman for the Division for Vitality Safety and Web Zero stated that the federal government “will at all times be sure that the power market is working for customers to guard them from sky-high payments and that households are getting the very best deal”.
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