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How hurricane season might affect COLA figures
A lot of the disparity between the indexes is as a result of heavier weighting of oil and gasoline costs within the CPI-W, based on Mary Johnson, Social Safety and Medicare coverage analyst at The Senior Residents League.
These costs are a key issue to look at in new CPI knowledge to be launched in September and October that may have an effect on the ultimate profit adjustment for 2024.
“The COLA estimate will go up if the value of gasoline jumps significantly,” Johnson mentioned. “The COLA estimate would possibly go down if gasoline and oil costs drop.”
Hurricanes, particularly, might immediate greater oil and gasoline costs, she mentioned.
This 12 months’s hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, has a 60% likelihood of being “above regular” on account of document excessive ocean temperatures, based on the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“Actually, hurricane season bears shut monitoring, and we’re coming into the center of it now,” mentioned AAA spokesman Andrew Gross.
“A significant storm impacting the Gulf Coast and close by refineries will doubtless result in a spike in gasoline costs for just a few weeks,” he mentioned.
Nevertheless, the strain could also be off pump costs in the mean time, he mentioned, on account of a mix of decrease oil costs and flat demand. The nationwide common for a gallon of gasoline was $3.87 as of Friday, based on AAA.
Seniors nonetheless battling excessive inflation
Even when the Social Safety COLA rises above the three% estimate for 2024, it nonetheless almost certainly is not going to come near the document 8.7% increase to advantages beneficiaries noticed this 12 months.
Which may be powerful for folks age 62 and up who’re nonetheless grappling with greater prices on account of inflation, Johnson mentioned.
“Economists are saying inflation is moderating and issues are getting higher, however shoppers are nonetheless confronted with excessive costs,” Johnson mentioned.
Housing, meals and health-care prices characterize about 80% of the standard seniors’ price range, she mentioned.
A few of these prices do not usually have a tendency to return down, significantly with regard to housing, Medicare and health-care prices, Johnson famous.
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