Why Turkeys Are Cheaper This Thanksgiving

Want one thing to be pleased about? Nicely, along with the roof above your head and the machine you’re studying this on, you’ll be able to add the worth of your Thanksgiving turkey to the checklist.

That’s in keeping with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), which discovered that the typical value of an 8-to-16-pound turkey was $1.27 per pound in August 2023 — a 22% decline from August 2022. The U.S. Division of Agriculture likewise lists the typical value per pound for frozen, complete hen turkeys as $1.27 in August 2023 — down simply over 22% from $1.64 in August 2022.

The costs of some turkey merchandise fell extra dramatically, like boneless and skinless male turkey breasts, which have been 61% cheaper in August 2023 than the identical time final 12 months, per the AFBF.

Why is that this taking place? As a result of, lastly, a extremely contagious avian flu outbreak got here underneath management.

In early 2022, what would grow to be the most important chicken flu outbreak in U.S. historical past began infecting wild and business flocks. Since then, it’s killed greater than 60 million birds, and people shrinking provides drove sharp will increase in poultry and egg costs.

However the scenario has improved. In September 2023, slightly over 500 birds contracted the avian flu. That’s a dramatic decline from the identical interval one 12 months earlier, when 8.15 million birds contracted the flu, in keeping with the AFBF.

“We’re holding our breath,” says Gregory P. Martin, an extension educator in poultry at Penn State College Extension, talking in regards to the broader poultry trade.

However whereas the scenario is significantly better than final 12 months, avian flu instances have began climbing once more. There have been 520 new avian influenza instances in September; in October, there have been 1.37 million new instances. Up to now in November, 1.09 million new instances have been detected.

Due to the poultry manufacturing provide chain, the timing of chicken flu outbreaks impacts the supply of sure sorts of turkeys, Martin says.

There must be an “ample provide” of frozen turkeys, Martin says, as a result of producers can retailer frozen turkeys for as much as a 12 months earlier than we see them on grocery cabinets. However contemporary turkeys might be tougher to return by, Martin says, because of the current surge in influenza instances. That outbreak coincided with the tip of the poultry trade’s “seasonal processing,” Martin says. Any contemporary turkeys that wanted to be in grocery shops by Thanksgiving ought to’ve been processed 4 to 6 weeks beforehand.

“At this late date, many of the contemporary inventory has already been processed and is being held in refrigeration,” Martin says. “In the event you want a contemporary chicken, try to be ordering it now. Not later — now.”

Frozen turkeys are sometimes cheaper than contemporary turkeys. As of Nov. 3, the typical value of a frozen turkey is roughly $1.18 per pound within the northeastern U.S., in comparison with $1.69 per pound for contemporary turkeys, in keeping with the USDA’s most up-to-date national turokey retail report. (The USDA lists the costs of each contemporary and frozen turkeys solely within the northeast.)

In the event you have been hoping to snag a contemporary turkey from a neighborhood farm, it’s possible you’ll be out of luck this 12 months, Martin says, since these farms can’t course of and retailer turkeys way back to bigger producers can.

“In the event you’re ordering from a neighborhood farm, you most likely ought to’ve executed it final month,” Martin says.

Beneath, you’ll discover the listed on-line costs for frozen turkeys at a number of grocery shops. Be aware: Every product’s value per pound was checked in a number of U.S. cities, however costs should still differ in your space.

• $1.49 per pound: Butterball premium all-natural younger turkey. 

• 99 cents per pound: Good & Collect premium basted younger turkey.

• $2.59 per pound: Butterball complete turkey. 

• $2.49 per pound: Signature Farms complete turkey.

• $4.49 per pound: Signature Choose absolutely cooked hickory smoked complete younger turkey.

• $69 cents per pound: Publix complete turkey Grade A.

• $2.99 per pound: Plainville complete turkey, raised with out antibiotics.

• $1.28 per pound: Butterball premium complete turkey.

• 98 cents per pound: Shady Brook Farms complete younger turkey.

You may suppose turkey is cheaper as a result of inflation is cooling off. However regardless of inflation’s slowdown in current months, most costs aren’t happening simply but.

Client costs throughout all classes are up 3.2% 12 months over 12 months, as of October 2023, in keeping with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s higher than issues have been final 12 months — in October 2022, shopper costs have been up 7.7% 12 months over 12 months, per the BLS.