In the present day, thirteenth November 2025, the ultimate financial progress figures earlier than the Funds have been launched by the ONS. Financial progress slowed to only 0.1% within the third quarter of the 12 months, July to September, and in September itself, GDP fell by 0.1%, which means within the ultimate month of figures to be launched previous to Rachel Reeves’ Funds on Wednesday twenty sixth November, 2025, the economic system was shrinking… We check out what the Chancellor has to say, the explanations behind the gradual progress within the quarter, and study what this all means for companies.
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Latest Financial Progress Figures For 2024/25
Earlier than we take a look at the latest figures, let’s examine figures from 2024-2025 to date, direct from the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics:
Let’s take a better take a look at the figures for 2025 to see how the economic system has been performing this 12 months:
- Q1 2025 (January-March) – Financial system grew by 0.7%
- Q2 2025 (April-June) – Financial system grew by 0.3%
- Q3 2025 (July-September) – Financial system grew by 0.1%
2025 Financial Pattern
Provided that financial progress began sturdy at 0.7%, the rising development of a slow-growing UK economic system in subsequent quarters is each disappointing and worrying for enterprise homeowners. Add to that the truth that within the month of September, GDP, and subsequently the economic system as a complete, really shrunk by 0.1%, you possibly can perceive why enterprise homeowners are ready with bated breath for the Chancellor’s Autumn Funds to listen to simply how she plans to show issues round and convey the financial progress the Labour authorities promised in December 2024.
The Plan for Change doc, launched in December 2024, said as plainly as doable that “financial progress is the primary mission of the federal government”. Thus far, they’ve technically delivered on that promise – the economic system is rising general – however nowhere close to on the fee they, or UK enterprise homeowners and households, could have hoped for.
Rachel Reeves Reacts
Reacting to the figures in a press convention this morning, Chancellor Rachel Reeves had this to say:
We had the fastest-growing economic system within the G7 within the first half of the 12 months, however there’s extra to do to construct an economic system that works for working individuals…
While acknowledging there’s extra to do, Reeves additionally stated: “At my Funds later this month, I’ll take the truthful selections to construct a powerful economic system that helps us to proceed to chop ready lists, lower the nationwide debt and lower the price of residing.”
Our recommendation for now? Take within the figures, hearken to totally different analysts and consultants over the approaching days, however don’t panic. The Autumn Funds will present extra readability over the plan transferring forwards, even when that plan is prone to contain growing taxes while encouraging companies and households alike to get behind the Chancellor’s plan, and improve exercise within the economic system to bolster financial progress. It received’t be straightforward, however with the best plan in place, enterprise homeowners will definitely be extra assured of their financial actions post-budget, if Rachel Reeves can pull it off.
Why Did The Financial system Shrink In September?
Of all of the information in the present day, the shrinking economic system in September would be the largest pink flag for enterprise homeowners. However there are extra particular causes for this. Specifically, the Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) cyber assault which noticed the carmaker shut down for greater than a month on the finish of August, inflicting enormous points throughout their complete provide chain, from small impartial companies to large multi-nationals.
This derailed automobile manufacturing output within the UK to a 70 12 months low, and precipitated hundreds of thousands of kilos to be misplaced for a lot of concerned in UK automobile manufacturing. This alone greater than explains the dip in GDP in September general.
Our Skilled Enterprise Analysts React
After talking with our crew, it’s clear that companies don’t must take any motion proper now. The massive hit to the economic system through the JLR cyber assault seemingly accounts for all of September’s dip in GDP efficiency and a great chunk of the quarter’s gradual progress general besides.
It’s effectively established by now that one-off hits to a significant world participant’s economic system is unlikely to trigger lasting damages, and actually may be roughly undone within the following quarter as catch-up progress accelerates general financial progress additional. Which means the ultimate quarter for 2025, October to December, may see extra spectacular GDP progress, barring one other freak hit just like the cyber assault at JLR.
In fact, our consultants are additionally eager to level out that this doesn’t negate the truth that the economic system is rising at a a lot slower fee than companies and authorities alike would hope for. For any methods up the Chancellor’s sleeve to reverse this, although, we’ll have to attend for the Autumn Funds in lower than a fortnight.
For all the newest SME information signal as much as our free publication. And for an unique professional evaluate of the Autumn Funds, be part of the Prosper² webinar on the twenty seventh of November, 11:00am-12:00pm, the place you’ll be taught extra about what the Chancellor has introduced and what all of it means for you and what you are promoting.
