Final week, I wrote about the Genesis Mission — the brand new nationwide AI program designed to maintain the US within the lead as synthetic intelligence accelerates towards superintelligence (ASI).
Naturally, I’m enthusiastic about what this implies for our future. However there’s one other piece to this ASI race that makes me rather less optimistic.
As a result of even when we unleash our nationwide labs to construct the very best fashions, and even when the Genesis Mission delivers every little thing it guarantees…
None of this issues if we don’t have sufficient energy.
And that brings me to this week’s chart.
As you may see, it reveals China’s electrical energy consumption from 2000 to immediately. And the curve isn’t simply steep.
It’s practically vertical.
In sensible phrases, China added the equal of a complete European Union’s price of electrical energy demand in simply six years.
Now, you might simply chalk this up as financial development. In any case, China has needed to quickly improve its infrastructure during the last 20 years to assist its manufacturing increase.
However I additionally see this as strategic positioning.
China is aware of that AI, automation and superior manufacturing will push international electrical energy demand to ranges the West isn’t prepared for. And relatively than look ahead to the world to adapt, it has spent a long time constructing technology, transmission traces and large-scale industrial capability at a tempo we haven’t matched.
In the meantime, the U.S. is straining to maintain up with its personal wants.
Information facilities are increasing sooner than utilities can approve new technology. Grid operators are warning about provide gaps. And in a number of areas, new industrial tasks are being delayed as a result of there merely isn’t sufficient energy to assist them.
As I’ve mentioned for the previous yr, I consider electrical energy will probably be a good larger bottleneck for AI than chips within the close to future.
And China has a large lead in electrical energy manufacturing.
Right here’s My Take
The race to ASI can be a race to construct the vitality infrastructure that may assist it.
And if you take a look at China’s energy curve, you see a rustic that clearly understands this.
That doesn’t imply the US can’t shut the hole. Our grid may be older, however once we put our minds to it, our innovation cycle will be extremely quick.
And with the Genesis Mission now underway, we’re lastly treating energy as a part of a nationwide technique.
However we have to stay conscious that electrical energy will change into a deciding issue during which nation can scale AI the quickest. And China’s explosive electrical energy development offers it a head begin.
If the US needs to guide the race to superintelligence, upgrading our grid will probably be simply as essential as constructing new AI fashions.
We’ve the sources to shut this vitality hole.
We’ll discover out quickly sufficient if we have now the urgency.
Regards,
Ian King
Chief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing
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