March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) as we speak is down -0.11 (-0.72%). March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) on Wednesday closed up +3.30 (+0.76%), and the London market on Friday remained closed as a part of the Christmas vacation.
NY sugar costs as we speak bumped into some lengthy liquidation stress after the rally seen earlier this week. Sugar costs rallied earlier this week on Tuesday’s forecast by consulting agency Safras & Mercado that Brazil’s sugar manufacturing in 2026/27 will fall -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT anticipated in 2025/26. The agency expects Brazil’s exports in 2026/27 to fall -11% y/y to 30 MMT.
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Final Thursday, sugar costs fell to 5-week lows amid prospects of upper sugar exports from India, after India’s meals secretary stated the federal government might allow extra sugar exports to cut back a home provide glut. Final month, India’s meals ministry stated it might permit mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar within the 2025/26 season. India launched a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain decreased manufacturing and restricted home provides.
Indicators of a bigger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting costs after the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) on November 11 raised its 2025/26 India sugar manufacturing estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The ISMA additionally lower its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can permit India to spice up its sugar exports. In the meantime, the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) reported on December 15 that Indian 2025-26 sugar manufacturing from October 1 to December 15 jumped +28% y/y to 7.83 MMT.
The outlook for file sugar output in Brazil can also be bearish for costs. Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar manufacturing estimate to 45 MMT from a earlier forecast of 44.5 MMT. Unica reported on December 16 that Brazil’s cumulative 2025-26 Heart-South sugar output by means of November rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT. Additionally, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 51.12% in 2025/36 from 48.34% in 2024/25.
On the bearish facet for sugar, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) on November 17 forecast a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a 2.916 million MT deficit in 2024-25. ISO stated the excess is being pushed by elevated sugar manufacturing in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. ISO is forecasting a +3.2% y/y rise in international sugar manufacturing to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26. In the meantime, sugar dealer Czarnikow on November 5 boosted its international 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to eight.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a September estimate of seven.5 MMT.
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for costs. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will improve by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched on December 16, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.6% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT and that international 2025/26 human sugar consumption would improve +1.4% y/y to a file 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecast that 2025/26 international sugar ending shares would fall by -2.9% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s International Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise by 2.3% y/y to a file 44.7 MMT. FAS additionally predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would improve by 25% y/y to 35.25 MMT, pushed by favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. As well as, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will improve by +2% y/y to 10.25 MMT.
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