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Home » BCCL IPO: Cheap on paper, costly in a downcycle; why Coal India may be the smarter pick
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BCCL IPO: Cheap on paper, costly in a downcycle; why Coal India may be the smarter pick

Business Circle TeamBy Business Circle TeamJanuary 8, 2026No Comments8 Mins Read
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BCCL IPO: Cheap on paper, costly in a downcycle; why Coal India may be the smarter pick
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Central public sector enterprise Bharat Coking Coal Restricted (BCCL) is India’s largest producer of coking coal, a essential uncooked materials utilized in steelmaking. Its operations are fully concentrated within the Jharia coalfield (Jharkhand) and the Raniganj coalfield (West Bengal). It’s a wholly-owned subsidiary of Coal India and accounted for 58.5 per cent of India’s FY25 home coking coal output.

Coking coal differs from the extra acquainted thermal coal. Whereas thermal coal is burned to generate electrical energy, coking coal is transformed into coke, which is then utilized in blast furnaces to make metal.

BCCL is now coming to the market via an preliminary public providing, a wholly offer-for-sale (46.57 crore shares). On the higher finish of the value band of ₹21-23 per share, the IPO values the corporate at roughly ₹10,711 crore. No recent capital will move into BCCL. The problem proceeds of about ₹1,071 crore will go to Coal India.

On headline valuation, the IPO seems cheap. On FY25 earnings, BCCL is valued at 8.7 instances price-to-earnings and about 4.8 instances EV-to-EBITDA. Nonetheless, when one appears on the final twelve months’ numbers, which incorporate the sharp 83 per cent y-o-y revenue decline within the first six months of FY26, the P/E valuation jumps to 17.4 instances and the EV to EBITDA to about 7.8 instances. The valuation hole displays whether or not earnings settle nearer to FY25 ranges or stay nearer to the weaker latest run price seen within the first half of FY26.

As compared, mother or father Coal India is valued at 7.5 instances P/E and 5.6 instances EV/EBITDA on a trailing twelve-month foundation. BCCL is a concentrated, extra cycle-sensitive guess that doesn’t meaningfully enhance the danger–reward versus simply proudly owning the diversified, steadier mother or father, Coal India. Thus, traders can keep on the sidelines for the BCCL IPO.

Enterprise particulars

India produces a big amount of coal (FY25: 1048 million metric tonnes, or MMT), however most (94 per cent) is thermal coal. Coking coal is scarcer not simply due to tonnage, however as a result of solely coal with particular properties can be utilized effectively in steelmaking.

Indian coking coal, together with that produced by BCCL, is usually excessive in ash content material. To be usable in blast furnaces, it have to be washed to scale back ash ranges. For the environment friendly operation of blast furnaces, the Indian metal trade imports high-quality coking coal and blends it with inferior-quality Indian coking coal.

BCCL holds coking coal geological sources of seven,910 MMT reserves and complete reserves (proved and possible) of 1,495 MMT. It has 34 operational mines and 5 coal washeries.

BCCL produces each uncooked coking coal and washed coking coal (processed to take away impurities). In FY25, it produced 40.5 MMT of uncooked coal, together with 38.9 MMT of uncooked coking coal. Washed output was a lot smaller at 1.65 MMT of washed coking coal (major output) and three.16 MMT of washed energy coal (secondary output).

On the income facet, BCCL’s gross sales have traditionally been dominated by the facility section. The highest 10 clients (which account for over 80 per cent of gross sales) are largely energy PSUs. In FY25, the facility trade accounted for about 74 per cent of complete gross sales, whereas metal accounted for about 18 per cent.

The identical sample continued within the first half of FY26, with energy at about 75 per cent and metal at about 18 per cent. Whilst BCCL is India’s largest coking coal producer by quantity, a big a part of its monetisation continues to be linked to the facility channel. Washed coking coal accounts for a smaller share of income (20-21 per cent).

The corporate is making an attempt to vary this combine. BCCL plans to ramp up uncooked coal manufacturing to 40.5 MMT (at the moment 40.5 MMT). On the identical time, coal washing capability is anticipated to extend from 13.65 million tonnes every year (MTPA) to over 20 MTPA, with three new washeries underneath growth. Administration steerage means that many of the incremental manufacturing will likely be directed in the direction of the metal sector, whereas energy sector volumes stay broadly secure.

Over time, better use of electrical arc furnaces and hydrogen-based steelmaking may scale back blast furnace capability and structurally soften demand for coking coal. Equally, India’s increasing renewable capability may regularly restrict long-term coal demand from the facility sector.

Coking coal pricing is about via a number of channels: long-term Gas Provide Agreements (FSAs), linkage auctions, e-auctions, and negotiated MoUs with massive clients. E-auction costs are market-linked and may swing with home and world provide and demand. This implies BCCL does profit when world coking coal costs rise, but in addition feels the draw back once they soften. As an illustration, premium exhausting coking coal costs landed in India swung from a pre-COVID band of roughly $120–$170 a tonne to a Russia-Ukraine war-era peak of $637 in 2022, earlier than normalising; by late 2025, they’re again close to $200 a tonne, round $214 in Oct-25, as per a Crisil Intelligence report.

Earnings cycle

Within the aftermath of worldwide coking coal costs surging following the Russia-Ukraine battle, BCCL in FY24 reported a web revenue of ₹1,564 crore, wiping out collected losses carried on the stability sheet from earlier years. EBITDA margin expanded sharply to 17 per cent from lower than 7 per cent a yr in the past.

In FY25, world costs cooled. Manufacturing volumes remained broadly regular, however income declined barely, and revenue fell about 21 per cent to ₹1,240 crore. This was a normalisation section fairly than a collapse. It exhibits clearly that BCCL’s earnings are delicate to realisations per tonne, even when bodily output is secure.

The actual stress appeared in H1FY26. In comparison with H1FY25, income fell by about 17 per cent, whereas EBITDA plummeted from ₹1,373 crore to about ₹460 crore. Revenue margins compressed sharply. Administration attributed this to heavy rainfall and subdued world costs, amongst different components.

As of September 2025, BCCL’s contingent liabilities (largely regarding tax and statutory issues) of about ₹3,599 crore have been equal to roughly 62 per cent of its web price.

Whereas it had no borrowings at March 2025, BCCL reported present borrowings of about ₹1,559 crore as of September 2025, i.e. roughly 1.1 instances LTM EBITDA.

A key threat is BCCL’s heavy publicity to the Jharia coalfield, the place underground fires and sophisticated geology pose operational challenges.

Over the previous couple of years, BCCL has shifted from a labour-intensive in-house mining mannequin to a extra outsourced construction. Contract mining and overburden elimination (elimination of soil/rock above the coal seam) now account for a a lot bigger share of prices. Contractual bills rose from about 19 per cent of operational income in FY23 to roughly 31 per cent by FY25 and 36 per cent in H1FY26. As contractor payouts are often linked to exercise and charges, a decline in promoting costs can squeeze profitability disproportionately.

In the meantime, BCCL is reviving some underground mines via the MDO mannequin and exploring coalbed methane tasks.

Coal India Lens

BCCL’s IPO can’t be assessed in isolation. Coal India will proceed to personal about 90 per cent of the corporate after itemizing. On the group stage, BCCL’s operations, dangers, and money flows are already included in Coal India’s consolidated numbers.

For a long-term investor, is there any incremental publicity BCCL provides that Coal India doesn’t?

Coal India is a diversified coal producer, dominated by thermal coal, with structurally greater and extra secure margins (over 30 per cent). Coal India has thrown off money and dividends, however the inventory has been muted: about 75 per cent value acquire for the reason that 2010 IPO, excluding dividends. On a complete return foundation, Coal India has delivered a 168 per cent acquire since its public difficulty, however has underperformed the Nifty’s 341 per cent rise in the identical interval.

Traders should perceive that BCCL represents a concentrated slice of the identical ecosystem. It provides greater sensitivity to metal cycles and world coking coal costs, but in addition better earnings volatility.

On normalised numbers (final 12 months), BCCL’s EV to EBITDA a number of of seven.8 instances (at IPO value) is materially greater than Coal India’s a number of of 5.6 instances. Between FY21-25, the typical Coal India valuation a number of ranged from 2.8 to five.2 instances, per Bloomberg.

For long-term traders, the centered, cyclical small-cap publicity from BCCL provides little worth over proudly owning the broader, extra secure large-cap mother or father. Given these components, traders can keep on the sidelines for this IPO.

Revealed on January 8, 2026



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