Every month, the NerdWallet Homebuying Local weather Index places a single quantity — and a well-recognized climate label — on how favorable situations are for dwelling consumers. For July, our evaluation of present information places the Local weather Index at 54.2 out of 100, conserving the index in Partly Cloudy territory for the forty eighth straight month as most variables maintain comparatively regular.
NerdWallet’s Homebuying Local weather Index combines 5 indicators linked to homebuying exercise: mortgage charges, dwelling value progress, disposable earnings, unemployment and constructing permits. Beneath, we break down what’s affecting current situations, how in the present day compares with the previous three many years and what it means when you’re weighing whether or not to purchase.
What’s affecting July’s Homebuying Local weather Index?
🏦 Mortgage charges: How a lot are consumers paying in curiosity?
Decrease mortgage charges make borrowing extra inexpensive, so that they’re weighted closely in our Local weather Index — if mortgage charges transfer down, that may shortly push the Index towards Sunny. Sadly, that is not what’s taking place this month.
Mortgage charges averaged 6.49% in June, in accordance with Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. And July’s common mortgage charge has reached 6.51% — the best in almost a yr. And we don’t anticipate a lot enchancment within the quick time period. As battle within the Center East drags on, that places upward strain on oil costs, which implies inflation and mortgage charges are more likely to keep elevated.
How has the Index moved over time?
Because the datasets we’re monitoring have a protracted historical past, you possibly can see how the present second compares to highs and lows over the previous 30+ years.
☀️ All-time excessive: Sunny (89.5) in March 2021
In early 2021, unemployment was declining from its pandemic peak, as mortgage charges remained low and disposable earnings elevated shortly as a consequence of COVID stimulus funds. Constructing permits have been additionally shifting upward from pandemic lows, and residential costs have been appreciating shortly because the market gained steam.
☁️ All-time low: Overcast (30.9) in April 1991
At this era within the early ’90s, mortgage charges have been hovering round 9.5%, unemployment was rising, and constructing permits have been low. Although disposable earnings was exhibiting slight good points, dwelling costs have been barely budging, signaling a stagnant market.
What does the Index NOT symbolize?
NerdWallet’s Homebuying Local weather Index is constructed from public, national-level information — it would not account for market variations by geographic area, and it may possibly’t take into account how your family’s funds examine with the nationwide image. Consider it extra as The Climate Channel’s large U.S. map, not the hourly forecast in your zip code.
Should you’re interested by how the maths may play out in your scenario, our consultants created the perfect assets that can assist you get began:
Isabella Angelos and Johanna Arnone contributed graphic design assist to this venture. A few of these graphics have been created utilizing HTML code written with the help of AI, and all have been reviewed by our editorial workforce for accuracy and high quality.
INDEX METHODOLOGY
NerdWallet’s Homebuying Local weather Index is a composite index, up to date month-to-month to symbolize the most recent federal information on 5 financial indicators: mortgage charges, dwelling value progress, disposable earnings, unemployment, and constructing permits.
Our information sources and variable weights are as follows:
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35%: Mortgage charges (Freddie Mac Main Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year mounted charge)
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20%: House value progress (Federal Housing Finance Company Home Value Index, month-over-month change)
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20%: Actual disposable earnings (U.S. Bureau of Financial Evaluation, month-over-month change)
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15%: Unemployment charge (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
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10%: Constructing permits (U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Division of Housing and City Growth)
Every of the 5 weighted scores are summed right into a single Index worth from 0-100 after which mapped to a corresponding local weather label:
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☀️ Sunny (80–100)
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🌤️ Largely Sunny (60–79)
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🌥️ Partly Cloudy (40–59)
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☁️ Overcast (20–39)
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⛈️ Stormy (0–19)
Article sources
- 1.Freddie Mac Main Mortgage Market Survey. 30-year Fastened-Charge Mortgage. Accessed Jul 30, 2026.
- 2.FRED, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis. U.S. Federal Housing Finance Company, Buy Solely Home Value Index for the US [HPIPONM226S]. Accessed Jul 28, 2026.
- 3.FRED, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis. U.S. Bureau of Financial Evaluation, Actual Disposable Private Earnings [DSPIC96]. Accessed Jul 30, 2026.
- 4.FRED, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Charge [UNRATE]. Accessed Jul 2, 2026.
- 5.FRED, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis. U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Division of Housing and City Growth, New Privately-Owned Housing Models Licensed in Allow-Issuing Locations: Complete Models [PERMIT]. Accessed Jul 24, 2026.
- 6.The Journal of Actual Property Finance and Economics . Utilizing Main Indicators to Forecast U.S. House Gross sales in a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Framework. Accessed Jun 10, 2026.
