Indian banks: Banks face a highly uncertain outlook, RBI report says

Indian banks might have weathered the pandemic with excessive capital buffers and improved asset high quality, however going ahead, they face a extremely unsure outlook, the Reserve Financial institution of India mentioned in a report on Tuesday.

The warning is on account of continuous geopolitical tensions, tighter financial and liquidity situations and potential adversarial spillover results on profitability and asset high quality, the RBI mentioned in it its report on the Development and Progress of Banking in India 2021-22.

“With international development set to deteriorate in 2022 and with rising prospects of a recession in 2023, credit score development may procyclically decelerate throughout main economies which, in flip, may shrink financial institution profitability,” RBI mentioned.

“Larger capital and liquidity buffers have helped banks and monetary establishments to stay resilient and secure. Nonetheless, fears of a tough touchdown have elevated worldwide,” RBI added, saying that for rising market economies, these elements have translated into surges in capital outflows, sharp depreciation of trade charges, lack of reserves and darkening macroeconomic prospects.

The consolidated steadiness sheet of Indian banks noticed double-digit development in 2021-22, after a niche of seven years, it added. This development was led by credit score development that accelerated to a ten-year excessive within the first half of the 12 months.

Scheduled business banks’ (SCBs) gross net-performing property (GNPA) have been declining sequentially from its peak in 2017-18, and have reached 5% on the finish of September 2022. “In 2021-22, the discount in NPAs was primarily contributed by written-off loans within the case of PSBs, whereas upgradation of loans was the first driver for asset high quality enchancment for PVBs,” RBI claimed.

Additional, the report states that the capital-to-risk weighted property ratio (CRAR) of SCBs rose to 16.8% on the finish of March 2022 from 16.3% the 12 months earlier than. All banks have met the regulatory minimal capital requirement of 11.5% as additionally the widespread fairness tier-1 (CET-1) ratio requirement of 8%, RBI mentioned.
SCBs noticed larger profitability in 2021-22 owing to an acceleration in revenue and a contraction in expenditure. Profitability is measured when it comes to return on fairness and return on property.

City Co-operative banks (UCBs) noticed augmented capital buffers, a decline in GNPA ratio and improved profitability indicators, RBI famous.

“The NBFC sector maintained snug liquidity buffers, sufficient provisioning, and a robust capital place throughout 2021-22, whereas asset high quality improved,” RBI mentioned in its report.