Future Outlook: Technical Trends for the Week of February 20 – February 24, 2023

This week, our analysts evaluation technical tendencies for the week forward for Micro NASDAQ 100 futures, the 30-year treasury bond futures, micro bitcoin futures and RBOB gasoline futures. In addition they increase on firm earnings and financial experiences for the approaching week.

Micro NASDAQ 100 Futures Day by day Chart

The Micro NASDAQ 100 futures tried to check the 38% Fibonacci retracement degree (utilizing the December 2021 excessive and the October 2022 low as a downtrend) a second time final week and failed, ending the week buying and selling across the 200-day exponential shifting common. The RSI exhibits bearish divergence: latest highs within the RSI are reducing, whereas latest highs in worth present sideways motion. The MACD histogram signifies a development change to bearish because it dips under the zero line. Ought to this pullback in worth proceed, help at 12072 (the 23% Fib retracement) and on the 50-day EMA, at present at 11985. Targets on the upside (after breaking by means of 12990) could possibly be 13730 (50% retracement degree) and the August excessive of 13933.

30-Yr Treasury Bond Futures Day by day Chart

The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond futures is reaching a essential space of help 124’12, which has already been examined in early January. The latest cross under the 50-day exponential shifting common is bearish, with the final seven buying and selling days seeing decrease highs and decrease lows. Bearish divergence is seen within the RSI indicator – with decrease lows on the RSI the place worth has but to make a comparable decrease low. The MACD exhibits bearish occasions as nicely, with the MACD, sign line and histogram all in damaging territory. Ought to the market rally, anticipate some resistance on the 50-day shifting common (at present at 128’07). Additional bearish motion may goal 117’15, the low within the October.

Micro Bitcoin Futures Day by day Chart

Micro Bitcoin futures proceed to rally with the cross above the 200-day exponential shifting common.  The MACD is poised for a cross above its sign line, which might be a bullish indication. The RSI is troubling although – whereas bitcoin is making increased swing highs, the RSI is seeing decrease swing highs, which may point out a weakening bull development. A continuation of the bull development may expertise resistance at 27550 (the 23% Fibonacci retracement from the excessive in November 2021 to the low a yr later). If development swings to the draw back, search for help on the 50-day EMA (at present at 20966).

RBOB Gasoline Future Day by day Chart

Gasoline futures have been a 65-cent buying and selling vary since September, buying and selling between 2.25 and a pair of.90, with worth at present midway between these borders at 2.57. Whereas MACD appeared prepared to point a development change to bullish, the final two buying and selling days of final week stored the indicator bearish. RSI is respecting the worth motion, trending downward to 43 (not fairly oversold but). An unconventional head and shoulders has appeared, so ought to a break of the neckline happen, the measured transfer (from the highest of the pinnacle to the neckline, utilized to the purpose on the neckline the place the draw back break happens) signifies a doable goal of two.15. Anticipate resistance at 2.90 ought to the development flip bullish.

Financial Reviews for the week of February 20^th – February 24^th

Thursday February 23^rd is a vital financial report day as each jobless claims and GDP will probably be launched at 8:30am ET. That is the second (revised estimate) launch for This fall 2022 GDP, with the Advance quantity at 2.9%. Watch to see if this primary revision will increase or decreases, as a development might affect Fed coverage for setting the Fed Funds charge. The U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) performs double obligation on Thursday morning, releasing each the Pure Gasoline report and the Petroleum Standing report.  Housing market-related experiences releasing this week embrace Present Residence Gross sales (Tuesday), MBA Mortgage Functions (Wednesday), and New Residence Gross sales (Friday).

Talking engagements by Federal Reserve presidents embrace NY Fed president John Williams (Wednesday), Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic (Thursday) and Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester. Notice that this will likely not embrace all Federal Reserve appearances subsequent week, and that market volatility can enhance when these audio system touch upon the economic system and Fed coverage.

Moreover, Monday is a financial institution vacation in the US; examine the exchanges for doable shortened buying and selling hours.

*** Market Transferring Indicators
* Benefit Additional Consideration

Date	Financial Reviews
Monday, February twentieth	No experiences because of the Presidents Day Vacation
Tuesday, February twenty first	10:00 AM ET: Present Residence Gross sales 11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections @usda
Wednesday, February twenty second	7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Functions 10:00 AM ET: State Road Investor Confidence Index 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes 5:30 PM ET: New York Federal Reserve Financial institution President John Williams Speech
Thursday, February twenty third	8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims*** 8:30 AM ET: GDP*** 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed Nationwide Exercise Index 10:30 AM ET: EIA Pure Gasoline Report* 10:50 AM ET: Atlanta Federal Reserve Financial institution President Raphael Bostic Speech 11:00 AM ET: Kansas Metropolis Fed Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Standing Report*** 4:30 PM ET: Fed Steadiness Sheet
Friday, February twenty fourth	8:30 AM ET: Export Gross sales 8:30 AM ET: Private Revenue and Outlays* 10:00 AM ET: New Residence Gross sales 10:00 AM ET: Shopper Sentiment 10:15 AM ET: Cleveland Federal Reserve Financial institution President Loretta Mester Speech 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Rely 3:00 PM ET: Cattle On Feed 3:00 PM ET: Chilly Storage

Corporations Reporting Earnings for the week of February 20^th – February 24^th

Retail corporations take heart stage this week, led by Walmart (in each the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices) on Tuesday morning. Baidu, eBay, Ali Baba and Wayfair reporting midweek characterize e-commerce – watch these outcomes for perception into how customers are spending on retail gadgets.

Residence Depot represents the opposite Dow Jones firm reporting this week, additionally on Tuesday morning—concentrate on potential volatility in Dow Jones futures each when the earnings experiences are launched and at common market open (9:30am ET).  Business actual property is represented by CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield on Thursday. Canadian banks incomes season begins with CIBC on Friday earlier than market open.

BMO = Earlier than Market Open
AMC = After Market Shut

* signifies that this firm is within the S&P 500 Index

You’ll want to examine again weekly and observe us on our social media accounts to obtain alerts of our Futures Outlooks week to week.

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