TransMedics Stock Comes Alive with Organ Transplant Tech

Ever since we woke up to the truth that demise is inevitable, people have been looking for methods to stay eternally. Till not too long ago, our choices have been fairly restricted. One might select to imagine in some form of afterlife and wait out the inevitable with various ranges of equanimity, however many people would in all probability go for some model of the Fountain of Youth. As of late the search for longevity has been taken up by the nice knights of Silicon Valley. From sucking the blood of the younger to harvesting human organs from pigs, corporations are pushing know-how (and generally ethics) to search out methods to increase human life. One of many riskiest however most fun sectors to emerge is regenerative drugs, a catch-all time period for therapies that regenerate cells, tissues, and organs.

Regenerative drugs corporations, for essentially the most half, are a fairly speculative lot, and it’s a protracted shot that any of them will probably be profitable commercially. That’s been very true for these centered on applied sciences for organ replacements. For instance, we’ve been following a 3D bioprinting firm referred to as Organovo (ONVO) since 2014. The biotech, which sometime hopes to print complete organs, had a whopping $1.4 million in income for all of 2022. And whereas xenotransplantation – particularly, harvesting organs from genetically modified pigs for human recipients – is exhibiting outstanding progress, we’re nonetheless years away from any form of commercialization.

Greater than 100,000 individuals in america are awaiting a life-saving organ transplant at any given time. In the meantime, almost 15,000 died final yr earlier than they might get a brand new organ in time. That’s why biotech corporations are burning by way of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} to sometime bioprint and even develop new organs on demand. However what if the issue isn’t essentially an absence of provide?

About TransMedics Inventory

We not too long ago turned conscious of TransMedics inventory (TMDX) after the Boston space firm’s revenues jumped greater than 200% between 2021 and 2022. At this time, it instructions a market cap of $2.6 billion with $93.5 million in 2022 income. That is the type of quarterly progress that the administration group at Organovo would squeal over:

But TransMedics will not be bioprinting piglets or rising hearts from genetically modified apple bushes. It’s not a regenerative drugs firm in any respect. Moderately, it’s a medical tools know-how agency that’s been ready 25 years to hit paydirt with its Organ Care System (OCS), an organ preservation platform. 

A Heat-Blooded Organ Preservation System

One of many largest bottlenecks of the present organ transplant system is procurement. That is the section between harvesting a contemporary organ from a donor and surgically inserting it right into a ready affected person. Time is of the essence. A coronary heart is just viable exterior the physique for as much as six hours. Ditto for the lungs. An unpickled liver is sweet for as much as 12 hours. The present customary for transporting contemporary organs is to throw them on ice like beer. In distinction, OCS know-how from TransMedics retains the organs alive by replicating many points of their pure surroundings – the center beats, the lungs breathe, the livers produce bile – whereas perfusing them with heat, oxygenated, nutrient-enriched blood.

Within the case of a lung, for instance, the OCS system can preserve it viable for greater than 3 times longer than a bag of ice. Meaning a donor on the west coast of america might assist somebody on the east coast of the nation – although solely over their lifeless physique. The worth proposition begins to come back into focus if you notice (because of the advertising and marketing graphics from TransMedics) that distance is now not a limiting issue. All of a sudden, 1000’s of extra hearts, lungs, and livers are in play:

In reality, if we’re to imagine these numbers, then clearing the organ donor waitlist is merely a matter of higher preserving these organs. For instance, there have been about 3,500 individuals and one tinman ready for a coronary heart transplant in 2021, in line with the Division of Transplantation (DoT) within the U.S. Division of Well being and Human Companies.

TransMedics implies that its OCS know-how might greater than meet that demand. Solely about 1,000 individuals had been ready with bated breath for a lung transplant throughout the identical timeframe. The system might additionally meet about half of all demand for brand new livers, with greater than 11,600 individuals on the ready record.

How Does TransMedics Make Cash?

These aren’t precisely large numbers by way of quantity, so it’s necessary to know TransMedics’ total addressable market (TAM). A low TAM means the corporate’s meteoric income progress may burn out fairly shortly.

First, let’s briefly speak about how TransMedics truly makes cash. The corporate employs a razor-and-blade enterprise mannequin. It principally rents the OCS consoles without cost (some prospects purchase them outright) after which sells single-use, organ-specific disposable units which might be required for every transplant. These recurring revenues account for about 85% of whole revenues, or about $79.2 million, although this in all probability contains some capital purchases of the consoles themselves. That’s the type of share you need to see in these types of recurring income fashions.

The rest of the corporate’s income comes from its Nationwide OCS Program (NOP), a turnkey service that gives outsourced organ retrieval and organ administration. The corporate is leveraging this program to assist unfold its know-how and add to the underside line. Talking of which: TransMedics has posted a constant gross revenue of 70% over the past two years, whereas additionally chopping losses over the past a number of quarters. In different phrases, the corporate seems to be operating a fairly tight ship, particularly on the clip it’s rising revenues.

What’s the Complete Addressable Marketplace for TransMedics?

Again to our query: What’s the whole addressable marketplace for preserving and transporting human organs? No less than three totally different sources quote TransMedics as claiming an $8 billion TAM in its main markets: america, Canada, European Union, and Australia. That’s primarily based on knowledge launched again in 2020 that stated the common price of a one-time OCS consumable was about $45,000. That works out to just about 178,000 procedures. 

At present, about 90% of TransMedics revenues come from america, so let’s concentrate on that because the near-term market. In 2022, the corporate processed about 1,000 instances on OCS, representing solely 7% of the present whole U.S. liver, coronary heart, and lung transplants, in line with TransMedics. Product gross sales accounted for about $79 million, as we famous earlier. If we subtract 10% for income generated exterior of america, that leaves about $71 million, which once more represents 7% of the entire market. Meaning the present TAM in america is just about $1 billion. However follow us: Based mostly on the sooner graphic on underutilized organs, TransMedics believes it could possibly triple and even quadruple the variety of transplants per yr (no less than for coronary heart and lung). Let’s cut up the distinction and name it 3.5 X $1 billion for a $3.5 billion TAM in america.   

Let’s examine our math by tackling the arithmetic from a completely totally different angle utilizing knowledge from the venerable consulting and actuarial agency Milliman, which makes a speciality of healthcare and insurance coverage. Milliman produced a really helpful report a few years in the past on the organ transplant market. It calculated the entire price of procurement (i.e., retrieval, preservation, and transportation) for every type of organ per process.

• Coronary heart – $131,500
• Liver – $104,200
• Lung – $118,900 (primarily based on a crudely calculated common between single- and double-lung transplants)

That is precisely the place TransMedics is competing with its OCS platform and NOP turnkey providers. Some extra back-of-napkin math: Multiply every of the numbers above with the entire variety of coronary heart, liver, and lung transplants acquired and wanted in 2022, primarily based on figures from DoT:

That offers us a TAM of about $3.6 billion in america, which is almost an identical to our first estimate. Contemplating that the inhabitants within the firm’s markets exterior of america is about 1.5X as huge, world TAM falls round $9 billion – not far off the unique estimate from TransMedics.  

Ought to You Purchase TransMedics Inventory?

We labored by way of this train as a result of we need to know the way a lot room TransMedics has to run earlier than income begins to plateau. The reply: lots. The corporate expects 2023 income between $138 million and $145 million, representing 48% to 55% progress in comparison with the earlier yr. That’s lower than 2% of world TAM and about 4% of the U.S. market utilizing essentially the most optimistic income forecast. 

Buyer focus will not be an enormous purple flag, with just one buyer accounting for 14% of 2022 revenues. Direct competitors appears minimal, with simply two corporations providing comparable platforms, in line with TransMedics. OrganOx is a British startup with an identical setup for liver, and XVIVO Perfusion is a German biotech that’s been about so long as TransMedics and is specialised on lung transplants. 

Whereas all of this would appear to place TransMedics in a powerful place, now we have a couple of caveats. First, TransMedics itself notes that the price of its OCS platform “considerably exceeds” the price of chilly storage preservation. How a lot? We don’t know, but it surely might negatively have an effect on widespread adoption. It’s additionally not clear if the medical system is provided to deal with a two- or three-fold improve in transplants.

TransMedics has a fairly quick historical past of this form of progress, and it’s additionally not solely clear how the corporate was all of the sudden in a position to pump up gross sales. If we had been to take a position – unlikely on condition that we’re already overweighted on life sciences in our Nanalyze Disruptive Tech Portfolio – we might need to wait and see if that is greater than a flash within the pan. 

As well as, the medtech firm is overvalued. Utilizing our easy valuation ratio, which divides present market cap ($2.6 billion) by annualized revenues ($31.4 million This fall-2022 X 4 = 125.6 million), we get 20.5. Our cut-off is 20, and no tech shares value proudly owning are near that proper now. 

Conclusion

After 25 years, TransMedics inventory seems to be having its second – however will it final? Positive, it’s “considerably” costlier for organ preservation than the usual beer cooler. However how will it evaluate to the worth tag for a bioprinted coronary heart or one grown in a genetically modified pig, if and when somebody lastly reaches commercialization? If TransMedics can keep on this trajectory and preserve traction, the corporate might have a time horizon of a decade or two earlier than different applied sciences are extra economically possible. We do know that there isn’t a room in our tech portfolio for one more life sciences firm, particularly on the present premium, however TransMedics inventory is one to look at.

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