Activist Petrus Advisers has a plan to help lift Criteo’s share price. Here’s how it might unfold

Enterprise: Criteo SA is a France-based firm specializing in digital efficiency advertising. Its answer consists of the Criteo Engine, the corporate’s information belongings, entry to stock, in addition to its advertiser and writer platforms. The Criteo Engine consists of varied machine-learning algorithms, together with prediction, advice, bidding and artistic algorithms. The Criteo Engine delivers ads by a number of advertising channels and codecs, together with show promoting banners, native promoting banners and advertising messages delivered to opt-in e-mail addresses. The corporate operates in roughly 90 nations by a community of over 30 worldwide places of work positioned in Europe, the Americas and the Asia-Pacific area.

Inventory Market Worth: $1.84B ($33.39 per share)

Share Possession:  5.60%

Common Price: n/a

Activist Commentary: Petrus Advisers, a Europe-based activist investor based in 2009, is targeted on growing a deep, elementary understanding of the general public firms it invests in, paired with energetic engagement each publicly and behind the scenes. The agency focuses completely on European nations the place it may well make investments just like the “locals” and inside industries by which it is an knowledgeable.

On Feb. 22, Petrus despatched a letter to Criteo’s chair of the board Rachel Picard and CEO Megan Clarken, calling for the execution of the next actions: (i) put together an investor day as quickly as attainable to elucidate the corporate’s retail media technique and a brand new mid-term plan; (ii) speed up the prevailing share buyback by way of a considerable self-tender of as much as $150 million; (iii) provoke a complete strategic overview no later than This autumn 2024; and (iv) refresh the corporate’s board by including impartial candidates whom Petrus will suggest.

Criteo SA is a world promoting know-how firm included and domiciled in France with a main American depositary receipt itemizing on the Nasdaq. The corporate leverages commerce information and synthetic intelligence to attach manufacturers, retailers and prospects by their Criteo advert platform. Criteo operates throughout three segments – advertising options, retail media, and Iponweb – however generated 83% of its $1.95 billion of income in 2023 from the advertising options phase. Criteo is a market chief within the area and has entry to a few of the greatest technical expertise in France. The corporate is worthwhile and has expanded gross revenue margins over the previous 4 fiscal years from 33% to 44%. Nevertheless, since its peak in 2018, it has suffered top-line contraction to $1.95 billion from $2.3 billion, and the inventory value has fallen to $33 from $44 in 2021.

Traditionally, Criteo’s advertising options phase has been a “cookie monster” with their key tech and income era coming from cookie data-based functions for digital promoting. Nevertheless Alphabet’s Google mentioned late final 12 months that beginning in January 2024, it’ll begin phasing out the usage of cookies and expects to part them out for 100% of Chrome customers by Q3 2024. To many within the investor neighborhood, this was the demise knell for cookies resulting in uncertainty for Criteo’s largest phase. Nevertheless, Criteo believes it has the technical capabilities and product suite in AI ad-tech to make use of algorithms that may exchange 60% to 70% of the income loss related to the tip of cookies. Moreover, the corporate’s retail media phase is a really interesting and rising enterprise utilizing software program as a service for e-commerce firms.

Accordingly, throughout its 2022 investor day on Oct. 31 of that 12 months, the corporate offered a 2025 web income goal (outlined as contribution ex site visitors acquisition prices (“TAC”)) of $1.4 billion and a plan to triple its retail media enterprise, with retail media web income projected to develop at a compound annual progress charge of 45% to 50% between 2022 and 2025. However a couple of 12 months later, on Nov. 2, 2023, Criteo acknowledged that the ambition to attain $1.4 billion in web income was “not anticipated to materialize inside the 2025 timeframe” sending the inventory down almost 12%. 1 / 4 later, the corporate disclosed surprisingly upbeat outcomes of complete web income progress of 10% 12 months over 12 months and retail media progress of 29%, sending shares greater. The volatility on this inventory is influenced by a administration crew that would stand to enhance its communications with the market. That not solely creates pointless volatility but additionally an absence of investor confidence in administration steering, which may have a big capacity to suppress a inventory, notably when Criteo’s largest phase is at an inflection level and traders must consider administration after they say that they’ll exchange 60% to 70% of the income.

This example jogs my memory of a narrative from the nice basketball coach Frank Layden, by which he mentioned to a younger, proficient participant not reaching his potential: “Son, what’s it with you? Is it ignorance or apathy?” To which the participant responded: “I do not know, and I do not care.”

The excellent news is that the most important drawback dealing with this firm is communications, not operations; and that may be solved with the addition of skilled administrators to the board with capital market data as proposed by Petrus. Further worth may be created by higher capital allocation. Criteo is sitting on over $400 million of web money and $150 million of earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Because of this, Petrus is looking upon Criteo to take 4 key actions: (i) refresh the corporate’s board by including impartial candidates whom Petrus will suggest; (ii) put together an investor day as quickly as attainable to elucidate the retail media technique and a brand new mid-term plan; (iii) speed up the prevailing share buyback by way of a considerable self-tender of as much as $150 million; and (iv) provoke a complete strategic overview no later than This autumn 2024.

Petrus will possible nominate exterior administrators to the board as they hardly ever suggest Petrus insiders for board seats. Petrus is the form of investor that likes to work with administration to create shareholder worth, however this administration crew has not proven a terrific willingness to work with others. In a rational world, this might settle shortly. If it doesn’t settle, Petrus has proven that they’re keen to take a proxy combat to a vote. However this one shouldn’t go that far as it’s comparatively straightforward for each Petrus and Criteo to know the place they stand in a possible proxy combat. There’s a very concentrated shareholder base with the highest ten shareholders — together with Petrus — proudly owning 68.48% of the inventory. Even higher for Petrus, these usually are not the traditional index fund house owners however traders like Neuberger Berman, AllianceBernstein and Cadian Capital Administration, who usually tend to assist a shareholder on the board.

However Petrus can also be calling for a complete strategic overview no later than This autumn 2024. This isn’t as a result of Petrus is being a short-term minded shareholder on the lookout for a fast bump on a sale. They take positions like this as a result of they consider within the firm and the CEO. But when administration can’t reinvigorate the fairness story, they should discover a suitor. And there have been reviews that suitors have an interest. As early as February 2021, Bloomberg reported, citing folks with data of the matter, that Criteo is “attracting takeover curiosity from strategic and monetary traders.” Then, in February 2023, Reuters reported, citing folks acquainted, that Criteo is “making a brand new try and promote itself” and employed Evercore to help in that endeavor. Nevertheless, on a Feb. 8, 2023 convention name, administration dismissed the Reuters article as hypothesis, making some ponder whether administration is genuinely exploring strategic options or not.

Ken Squire is the founder and president of 13D Monitor, an institutional analysis service on shareholder activism, and the founder and portfolio supervisor of the 13D Activist Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a portfolio of activist 13D investments.