Icra revises banking sector outlook from positive to stable

Rankings agency Icra has revised the banking sector outlook to steady from constructive because it expects credit score progress and profitability metrices to reasonable , however would proceed to stay wholesome. Banks’ web curiosity margins anticipated to compress, although benign credit score prices and decrease working bills would supply help, the rankings agency mentioned.

Although the compression within the curiosity margins during the last 18 months has been pushed by rising deposit value, the expectations of a fee reduce within the second half of FY’2025 might result in margin strain, pushed by a possible downward repricing of advances, Icra mentioned. General the earnings can be wholesome and can largely be enough for many banks to satisfy their regulatory in addition to progress capital necessities, it mentioned.

Banks’ credit score to deposit ratio is estimated to have elevated to 78% (excluding the merger of HDFC Restricted) as on March 22, 2024 which is the very best since December 21, 2018 (77.9%) and far greater in comparison with 75.7% as on March 24, 2023.

It will pose important challenges for the banks to pursue credit score progress as their on-balance sheet liquidity has been deployed in the direction of robust credit score progress over the last two years. The CD ratio is more likely to stay elevated at over 80% (together with HDFC merger) in FY’2025.

“With elevated CD ratio, the competitors for deposit mobilisation is more likely to stay excessive even throughout FY2025, which is able to restrict the banks’ skill to chop their deposit and lending charges” mentioned Sachin Sachdeva, vp & sector head, Icra. “Amid this, if the coverage charges are reduce, it is going to pose important challenges to banks’ web curiosity margins (NIMs).”

Credit score prices are estimated to stay regular at 0.8% of advances in FY2025, in step with FY2024. This could permit banks to comfortably face up to a compression within the curiosity margins, which might result in a gentle moderation within the return on belongings to 1.0-1.1 p.c in FY2025 from an estimated 1.2 p.c in FY’2024, Icra mentioned. Icra expects the gross NPAs and web NPAs (NNPAs) to say no to 2.1-2.3% and 0.5-0.6%, respectively, by March 2025 from 3.0% and 0.7%, respectively, estimated for March 31, 2024, which might stay one of the best in additional than a decade. However Icra stays cautious concerning the influence of macro-economic shocks reminiscent of slowdown in credit score progress, and excessive rates of interest domestically in addition to in developed markets on the asset high quality, if these had been to materialise.