Jamie Dimon, chief govt officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., speaks in the course of the 2025 Institute of Worldwide Finance annual membership assembly in Washington, Oct. 16, 2025.
Samuel Corum | Bloomberg | Getty Pictures
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated buyers are underestimating the dangers going through the worldwide financial system and that he would not purchase both equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at their present costs.
In an hourlong interview with Wilfred Frost launched late Monday, Dimon stated markets aren’t totally accounting for a rising checklist of geopolitical and monetary threats.
“I do assume these dangers are most likely larger than different folks assume,” Dimon stated, pointing to wars in Ukraine and the Center East, tensions between the U.S. and China, and rising navy spending in a time of mounting authorities deficits.
Requested whether or not markets are underpricing the prospect of a serious shock, Dimon stated it is troublesome to know precisely what dangers are already mirrored in asset costs.
“It is potential one thing’s baked in, however what’s not baked in is what really occurs,” he stated.
Dimon, who leads the world’s largest financial institution by market cap, usually warns the general public concerning the financial dangers he sees.
His newest feedback distinction with buyers’ current willingness to look previous wars, tariffs and different shocks. The S&P 500 has returned almost 10% this yr as customers proceed to spend, inflation has moderated and buyers have embraced the synthetic intelligence commerce.
Final week, JPMorgan Chase and its friends posted blockbuster quarterly outcomes powered by surging buying and selling and funding banking income, reinforcing the view that the U.S. financial system has weathered current geopolitical turmoil higher than many anticipated.
Dimon acknowledged within the interview with “The Grasp Investor Podcast” that the worldwide financial system has change into extra resilient due to a decrease vitality dependence than in earlier many years, however warned that does not eradicate the opportunity of a sudden inflection level.
“It’s possible you’ll want extra straws within the camel’s again to trigger that tipping level,” he stated. “Even this present struggle beginning up once more, possibly that is not sufficient to do it.”
Persistent U.S. finances deficits will ultimately drive a reckoning, probably driving rates of interest greater, Dimon stated.
“My view is it’s going to change into an issue,” he stated, predicting greater rates of interest as so-called bond vigilantes demand higher compensation to finance the federal government’s debt.
Shares, AI cycle
When requested, Dimon stated he would not buy long-dated Treasurys: “Personally, no,” he stated.
Even when inflation falls again to the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, “the 10-year bond ought to most likely be at 4% to 4.5%,” he stated, including that he sees little upside for Treasury costs.
He was equally cautious on shares. Whereas he would contemplate a person inventory if it was “an important funding,” Dimon stated he would not be a purchaser of the broader market at present valuations.
Dimon additionally struck a measured tone on synthetic intelligence, evaluating right this moment’s spending growth to the early days of the web.
“The sum of money being spent is big. Will it in complete repay? In all probability, identical to the web did,” Dimon stated.
He additionally identified that in that web growth, massive early gamers equivalent to Yahoo and Netscape light whereas eventual winners equivalent to Google and Fb emerged later.
“Will it repay the way in which you count on and the timetable you count on? Undoubtedly not,” Dimon stated.
