Robinhood signage throughout a media occasion at John F. Kennedy Worldwide Airport in New York, March 4, 2026.
Adam Grey | Bloomberg | Getty Pictures
Robinhood might see a large enhance to its prediction market income as soccer season begins subsequent week, based on a Wednesday word from Piper Sandler.
Earlier this summer season, the World Cup paved the way in which for explosive quantity development in prediction markets, and it suggests robust numbers might present up throughout soccer season, based on analyst Patrick Moley.
“Given Kalshi & HOOD’s US-centric consumer base, and the massive hole in recognition between Soccer and Soccer within the US, we view the explosive World Cup volumes as a number one indicator of what is to come back — the NFL/[NCAA Football] season ought to be a major catalyst for HOOD’s 3Q26 and 4Q26 prediction market income,” he wrote.
Rothera, which launched in June, is a prediction markets three way partnership between Robinhood and Susquehanna. It is a derivatives change and clearinghouse that is regulated by the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee.
The rosy outlook comes after Robinhood administration confirmed Rothera has obtained approval from the CFTC to supply soccer contracts overlaying wins and spreads, Piper Sandler mentioned.
To that finish, Moley lifted his forecast for Robinhood’s 2026 and 2027 earnings per share estimates by 5% and seven%, respectively, and he lifted his worth goal to $145 from $135, suggesting about 35% upside from Wednesday’s shut. The analyst additionally reiterated his obese score on the inventory.
Step apart, Kalshi
Whereas Robinhood shows Kalshi’s markets to its customers, Moley estimates roughly 23% of prediction market quantity has shifted to Rothera from Kalshi since June.
“Robinhood’s shift to Rothera has accelerated the decline in its share of Kalshi’s volumes,” Moley mentioned within the Wednesday word. “Final 12 months throughout soccer season, HOOD customers made up between 22% and 30% of all quantity traded on Kalshi, a share that has decreased to the mid-single digits behind Kalshi’s quest to amass extra of its personal customers,” the analyst wrote.
Between June and August, common month-to-month prediction market volumes at Robinhood grew 88%, in comparison with the January to Could interval, largely due to robust World Cup engagement, Moley added.
To provide you with projections for Robinhood’s prediction markets income within the second half of the 12 months, Piper Sandler used Kalshi as a proxy.
The agency’s analysts predict that from September by December, Robinhood customers will commerce roughly 29.7 billion occasion contracts and generate round $320 million in income, or $960 million annualized.
Soccer will not be as dominant on Kalshi
Soccer accounted for 42% of Kalshi’s whole quantity within the 2025 season, with the platform producing roughly $14 billion in NFL and NCAAF buying and selling quantity, Piper Sandler discovered.
This time, Moley doesn’t count on football-related contracts on Kalshi to dominate whole quantity due to the number of contracts past main sports activities.
“Main sports activities made up simply 54% of Kalshi’s combine in August 2026, down sharply from a excessive of 83% in November 2025,” the word mentioned.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a industrial relationship that features buyer acquisition and a minority funding.
